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Dhirubhai Ambani University School of Law

Deciphering the Position of Scientists in Effectuating IPCC Assessment Reports & Formulation of the Sixth Assessment Report.

By Prof. (Dr.) Manuj Bhardwaj and Manvendra Singh

Abstract

In the modern age of Anthropocene, society is fronted with an inimical malediction of climate change. In edict to disseminate the substantial data relevant to its inquisitions, the IPCC summarizes its findings in subsequent Assessment Reports. This assemblage of data and records concentrates on culmination and promontories with equitably high certitude. Which underlines the critical role played by the Working Groups and their scientists in constructing a significant spectrum of the database. From an array of scientific, technical, and socio-economic knowledge. This article strives to dissect the role played by the scientific community in the development of the subsequent IPCC Assessment Reports in the attending period. Ensuing this, there arise numerous questions and perplexity as to the officiousness of the role of scientists in the climate crisis, which stands as follows, Does the approach of science about climate change, breathe as effective and efficient in climate change adaptation? Whether the data furnished under the Assessment Reports certainly benefit the policy-making? Whether the IPCC Assessment Reports stand in consonance with the perceptions of the Paris Agreement? Does it ensure a sustainable contribution across every facet of humankind, in the development of the Assessment Reports? Conclusively, the author sought to define the nexus of the science-policy interface, developed by the IPCC, with the aid of its scientists, across its working groups.

I. Introduction

The subject of climate change is critical to the development of every country.1 To unveil the curtains of solutions, it would demand complicity from diverse settings in society and every country across the globe,2 since this transpires to be a crisis concerning a substantial part of our everyday lives.3 Asunder from the extensive shreds of evidence, climate change survives as a convoluted subject to articulate with the public.4 However, to assist such a predicament, the scientific community happens to have assisted in installing a science-policy interface.5 This assists by nourishing scientific, technical, and socio-economic information. To commit to such objectives and assemble a more profound acumen of the climate crisis, the scientific precinct supported the cultivation of some of the distinctive agencies, such as the IPCC’s Assessment Reports.6

These reports live to assist in every order of policy-making, by equipping a methodical examination of the assembled data, from the central to the regional level of governance.7

Following the edifice laid by the IPCC’s Assessment Reports, in constructing a sustainable future, there transpires to arise several queries.8

To address such specific questions and concerns, the author has classified the article into three ensuing divisions for the discussion. Primarily, the Part 1st of this Article will emphasize and analyze the evolution of the science-policy interface in the development of the IPCC’s Assessment Reports, over the years. In architecting a sustainable solution, both for the regional and national policy-making, with the contribution of scientific, technical, and socio-economic data. Substantial to which, Part 2nd of this Article shall address the development and the implementation of the narratives. Underlined in IPCC’s Assessment Report over the years, for officious policy-making. Likewise, it highlights the proliferation of scientific, technical, and socio-economic data regarding climate change. After the publication of IPCC’s Assessment Reports over a period of subsequent years. Accordingly, the Part 3rd of this Article shall accentuate the questions of the scientific precinct in the formulation of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

II. The Architecture of Science-Policy Interface: The Development of IPCC Assessment Report.

To apprehend the development of the Science-Policy Interface. It emerged to be indispensable to notify that in the last three decades, the subject of “Climate Attribution” ensues to have been augmented with the contribution of scientists.9 To grasp the frequency of anthropogenic climate change. This displays the proliferation of agencies that aid in the development of International Climate Change Law, Climate change Policies, and specifically IPCC Assessment Reports.10 The instrumental role played by IPCC as a sustainable solution to the climate crisis came in the year 1988.11 When the WMO and the UNEP laid the edifice of an ad hoc intergovernmental body to co-ordinate scientific assessment and collect scientific, social, and technical data concerning climate change.12

Highlighting the role played by the IPCC in conferring a definitive idea of the climate crisis.13 It occurs to undertake an assorted approach by employing policy-science, as an instrument of responding to queries requested by non-scientific agents of society.14 However, it stands correct in this respect that IPCC’s Assessment Report counts upon the open scientific, technical, and social data available in the public environment, about the climate crisis.15 Subsequent, to an in-depth analysis of data, it cultivates an outline of the consequences, prospective risks, and a strategy for adaptation and mitigation policies.16

It suggests that Assessment Reports from IPCC stand in consonance with the objective of understanding the scientific temperament of the issues of the climate crisis.17 Consequently, it becomes quite apparent to mention that IPCC assists in establishing a science-policy interface.18 Through the investment of scientific techniques in constructing an array of exhaustive and thorough research. Pursued by a process of comprehensive review and formulation of a sweeping policy by the three working groups.19 To understand the impact of climate change and adaptation.20 Conclusively, by assisting in designing an exhaustive policy for climate change mitigation.21

III. The Function of IPCC Assessment Report in Policy-Making.

The subject of climate change evolved to be a critical driving force for policy-makers across the globe.22 Through the formulation of the IPCC Assessment Reports.23 The Assessment Reports are assessed as a definitive document that influences global policies and outlines the state of knowledge about climate science.24 Since the development of the first IPCC Assessment Report 1 (AR1) in 199025, it has matured in terms of decisiveness, sophistication, and intricacy in its operations.26 This is evident from the account that since the formulation of AR1 to AR6.27 Scientists across the globe over the past 30 years have compiled and analyzed data on weather forecasting to quantify the frequency and magnitude of climate issues.28

Assessment Reports from IPCC happen to work as a critical scientific tool in assisting policy-makers in the development of sustainable policy for climate adaptation and mitigation.29 However, the approach employed by the IPCC in cultivating a conjectured approach and devising a solution is certainly deficient to fulfil the needs of the climate crisis. Since developing a sustainable policy is apprehended as a convoluted and an exhaustive process, which requires approaches that are dependent on context and particularly the cognition of the policy-makers proficiency to negotiate ample and intricate information blended with the eccentricity of exchanges amid decision-makers, resolutions, and recourses.30

Following such episodes of evidence-based decision-making employed by the IPCC, it invites certain challenges to a sustainable policy.31 This could be credited to the point moved by Chapter 10 of the Assessment Report 5 (AR5) Working Group II Report:
“For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to impacts of other drivers (medium evidence, high agreement). Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socio-economic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is relative to the impact of climate change.”32

Considering its role in policy-making, it has proven its essence in furnishing pieces of evidence such as sea-level rise, temperature, rainfall, etc. IPCC’s Assessment Reports have proved to be an instrumental tool in designing strategies for regional policy-makers which are of regional pertinence concerning the specific town or place.33 Also, in drafting climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.34

IPCC, by orchestrating its emphasis on global climate change, has published several Assessment Reports (AR), from 1990 (1st Assessment Report) to fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and subsequently with the development of the most recent Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

The First Assessment Report (published in 1990) deciphered the understanding and evidence for an evolving wave of global warming, and identified it into findings as follows:
“The Report presented evidence that, for a thousand years before the industrial revolution, the concentration of GHG was constant and that however since the beginning of the industrialization in the 18th century the concentration of several GHG, in particular, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CFCs have been increasing markedly primarily due to man’s activities. As a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect, the earth’s surface and atmosphere are warming up.” 35

Subsequently, the Second Assessment Report (published in 1995) unveiled the curtains from the inadequacy of the strategies undertaken for mitigating global warming. 36

IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (published in 2001) highlighted the plight of, “shrinkage of glaciers, thawing of permafrost, later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on rivers and lakes… the decline in some plant and animal occupations, and earlier flowering of trees, the emergence of insects, and egg-laying in birds.” 37

The Fourth Assessment Report (published in 2007) emphasized a significant development in steering awareness about global warming.38  It also invited attention from Global Organizations and communities to address the evolving threat of climate change. As it stated its finding as follows,

“The IPCC report indicates that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperature, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level……The report notes that most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is highly likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. The report projects an increase in the global average temperature of about (i) 0.2 degrees Celsius for the next two decades for all four GHG emissions scenarios, and (ii) 1.8 degrees to 4 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 depending on the GHG emission scenario.”39

Despite such thorough research and investigation over decades into the climate crisis, IPCC was also able to lay the foundation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), during Rio Earth Summit in June 1992.40 Accordingly, UNFCCC came into effect on the 21st March 1994.41

Lastly, the Fifth Assessment Report highlighted the plight that surfaced over the economy and biodiversity of the countries because of global warming.42 It stated the occurrence of such a crisis amidst the growing temperature between 1-degree to 2-degree Celsius.43 Moreover, it signified the growing predicament over the socio-political and economic conditions across the globe.

After these findings and improvement in approach, IPCC have justified its position in maintaining the balance between scientific inclusivity and driving communication of the amassed data throughout the national and international region.44 In laying the edifice of the science-policy interface to address the predicament of climate change, and assist in global climate decision-making.45

IV. Staging IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) & The Prominence of the scientific community in its Development.

In the last few decades, there has been a subsequent increase in the emission of greenhouse gases.46 Consequently, the global temperature has mounted between 1.1 to 1.447 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era.48 This data has been conceivable after a thorough investigation of the scientific community.49 Also, the expanding research from Intergovernmental Organizations such as IPCC, WMO, and UNFCCC has justified its position in architecting a framework of furnishing technical, scientific, and socio-economic databases, which helps in formulating sustainable policies.50 Both at the regional and national level of policy-making.51

After the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report, the year 2022 marked the way for the publication of the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Pursuing the avowed objective of IPCC, its working group has published two reports so far. Its prime focus has been on the examination of the growing GHG emission, and huge reliance on fossil fuels for energy.52 Subsequently, it accentuated the provisions for orienting investments in renewable and clean energy as a sustainable solution to the climate crisis.53 However, despite hiring renewable & clean energy, and refinement in technology and its employment, the GHG emissions have not demonstrated satisfactory results.54 Such inadequate development highly mandates preface towards huge investments in renewable & clean energy sector.55 Despite the ensuing directions furnished by the Assessment Reports, so far have emphasized the decarbonization of the economies across the globe, to meet the needs of the hour.56 Followingly, to preclude the global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius, as demarcated by the Paris Agreement.57

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment recapitulates that climate change will augment all territories of the sphere over the coming decades and that even with 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, there will be supplemented heat waves, more protracted warm seasons, and more fleeting cold seasons, which will become more drastic at 2 degrees Celsius of warming.58

Highlighting the quandary of descending climatic conditions, and subsequent increase in climate change. There happen to surface numerous episodes of flooding events and intense droughts. This can be apparent from the 2017 Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), which represents regional outcomes of the climate crisis across the United States.59 Highlighted that the United States transpired to have suffered through the drastic frequencies of flooding events in the last five decades.60 Despite being a regional representation of the climate crisis, it demonstrated the possibility of a similar set of episodes across the sphere.

On the other hand, the Sixth Assessment Report demonstrated the aborning possibilities of extreme weather conditions resulting in “droughts, aridity, decrease in precipitation, increase in fire weather, mean and extreme sea-levels, snow cover decrease, wind speed decrease by mid-century and at a global warming of at least 2 degrees Celsius and above” over the Mediterranean region.61 This also encloses the ordeal of the Northern, Western and Central European regions of the earth.62

Consequently, this pragmatic crisis of climate change subsists to affect not only the physical aspect of this terrestrial earth but also the socio-economic, and political stability of the global economies63. Eventually, the Working Group-I report exhibits that a collective approach from society could help determine a new course for climate action.64 This could be achieved by pruning down the carbon emission to net zero.65 Otherwise, it would take 20-30 years to witness the harmonization of the global temperature.66

V. Conclusion

The IPCC’s Assessment Report materializes a nexus between the policy-makers and the scientific community, in deciphering a series of impacts and solutions for the climate crisis. It proffers that Assessment Report from IPCC breathe in symmetry with the pursuit of apprehending the scientific disposition of the problem of climate change. Hence, it evolves conspicuous to cite that the IPCC assists in designating a science-policy interface. As an instrument of science-policy interface, it has elucidated its standing in possessing congruence amidst scientific inclusivity and piloting the transmission of the compiled data straight away to the national and international provinces. For architecting the outline of a sustainable interface to manage the emergencies of climate change, and administer global climate policy-making. This sensible predicament of climate change affects not exclusively the material facet of earth, but also the socio-economic aspect of our everyday lives. The Assessment Reports displayed that a communal course of action from the institutions could help demarcate a new atmosphere for climate action.

65 YOU MATTER, https://youmatter.world/en/ipcc-sixth-6th-assessment-report-climate/#:~:text=The%20IPCC’s%206th%20Assessment%20outlines,intense%20at%202%C2%BAC%20of%20warming (Last visited May 26, 2022).
  • 66 Ibid.